Development of differentiated norms of bus trip duration by periods of the day for increasing the movement regularity

Abstract

The paper is devoted to improving the efficiency of transportation and the quality of passenger service in urban areas. The purpose of the study is development of methodology for determination differentiated norms of bus trip duration by periods of the day, which consider the stochastic impact of multitudinous factors on the traffic of vehicles. The object of research is bus route No. 125, which is operated by Technopolis LLC.

It was found that the regularity of bus trips on the route No. 125 varies from 10% to 39% for different periods of the day (an average of 24% during the route's operation), which is significantly lower than the normative value of 96%. To raise the regularity of bus traffic, it was decided to develop differentiated standards for the duration of the trip by time of the day. The implementation of such a measure allows to ensure compliance with bus speeds changing conditions of transportation.

Main parameters of duration distribution of bus line No. 125 were determined by Microsoft Excel add-in Data Analysis → Descriptive Statistics. It was also found that they can be described by a normal distribution law. Based on the results of the performed statistical modeling, the most probable duration of the bus trip on the route was determined for periods from 6:00…7:00 and 19:00…22:00 – 25minutes; from 7:00…9:00 and 15:00…19:00 - 35 minutes; from 9:00…15:00 - 30 minutes. Taking into account the received recommendations during the development of the new route schedule, will increase the regularity of buses' movement to 41%.

Keywords: transport efficiency, law of distribution, route duration, regularity of movement, statistical modelling method.