Parameters of the group behavior model of drivers on motor roads

Abstract

The analysis of the human-vehicle-road-environment system is an important part of the construction of highways and the further development of international transport corridors between European countries. An important point here is the relationship between the behavior of drivers. It is proposed that the parameters of the model of the group behavior of drivers be considered to assess the socially necessary performance of drivers on highways.

The article "Parameters of the model of the group behavior of drivers" deals with the issue of the dynamics of the calculated characteristics of the traffic flow, namely the actual and socially necessary speeds of movement and their analysis.

The conducted studies of the actual and socially necessary speed of movement on highways allowed the author to assume that the dynamics of the calculated characteristics can be used to judge the laws of the evolution of highways.

An important task of highway design is the long-term forecasting of the calculated characteristics of traffic flows. One of the problems is the problem of forecasting the actual and socially necessary speeds of traffic on highways.

The speed of movement of the “man-car” system in the environment reflects the relationship between the components of the emergency control system, since it is the result of its functioning. Therefore, speed can be considered as a state parameter of a given system. It makes sense to use the probability of transition from the actual to the given speed as the state coordinate.

In the structure of state parameters, the given speed should be considered as normal, i.e., most consistent with the goals and objectives of the functioning of the emergency response system at this stage of its evolution.

State coordinates can be used as weighting coefficients in a motion speed prediction model.

A model of the evolution of a closed-state Human - Vehicle - Road - Environment system can be represented as a system of differential equations reflecting the dynamics of the absolute organization of its components.

With gradual improvement of traffic conditions (phased construction, reconstruction, major repairs), the driver’s individual speed norm tends to the functional speed norm for the purpose of freedom of action. The latter is equal to two-thirds of the design speed of the vehicle.

Experimental studies have confirmed the validity of the formulas for estimating the parameters of the forecasting model.

The model for predicting traffic speeds is adequate for the observed data on the dynamics of design, design and normal speeds for drivers.

It was found that the solution to this problem is possible by analyzing the evolution of the relations between the components of the "man-car-traffic environment" system.