On the question of determining quantities of the transport flow when delivery of cargo in supply chains

Abstract

The work is devoted to the development of effective methods of forecasting the intensity of freight traffic to determine the volume of material flow in supply chains. The analysis of literary sources showed that a feature of cargo delivery is the territorial dispersion of consumers who are residents of settlements, this leads to the issue of optimizing the transport process in and around settlements. Existing approaches to the optimization of the system of delivery of goods in supply chains are based on the determination of the features of the location of the consignees of the existing trade network in the territory under investigation. The issue of forecasting the amount of cargo flow in supply chains for populated areas in accordance with the actual values of the intensity of cargo flow allows solving the problems of optimizing logistics operations in the transport system. The proposed model for forecasting the amount of cargo flow allows, based on the actual values of the intensity of cargo transport, to obtain the forecast value of supply in the territory of both the region and for a separate settlement. The main factors affecting the amount of cargo flow in the model are the distance to the center of gravity and the number of residents, which determines the potential supply demand for the research object. The obtained model will allow to optimize the process of movement of goods flow for effective management of supply chains at the level of solving problems both in the territory of the region and in the territory of the urban agglomeration.Keywords: supply chain, traffic intensity, traffic flow, material flow, distance, settlement, population