The accident rate on Ukrainian roads: expectations that did not come true

Abstract

The study aimed to determine the actual accidents' state indicators on domestic roads and compare them with the expected, which were approved in the State programs to improve road safety for the periods up to 2016 and 2020, as well as analysis of expected indicators given in the State program level of road safety for the period up to 2023.

The state of the accident was assessed by such indicators as the number of dead and injured per 100 thousand population (social risk), the number of dead per 100 thousand vehicles (transport risk), as well as three indicators that characterize the severity of the accident: the number of deaths per 100 injured and the number of fatalities and injuries per 100 traffic accidents. In the process of research, were determined the actual accident rates in Ukraine in 2015-2020. As a result, it was found that the actual indicators of social and transport risks in these years were worse than expected except only the number of deaths due to road accidents per 100 victims was less or was at the same level.

Some irrelevances between the planned expected results are observed in the State Program for Improving Road Safety in Ukraine for the period up to 2023. If we compare the numbers of adjacent 2020 and 2021, the expected results on three indicators have increased unjustifiably and only the number of deaths due to road accidents per 100 victims in 2021 and subsequent years is expected to be lower. An even greater irrelevance is observed when comparing the actual figures for 2020 with the expected ones for 2021; the Ukrainian roads' situation predicts to become worse than it is. Similarly irrelevant are the two new indicators that assess the severity of the accidents' consequences - the number of dead and injured per 100 accidents.

In Ukraine, the statistics on the death and injury of people as a result of road traffic accidents remains quite high, as for the European region. Analysis of the state of accidents on domestic roads for 2015-2020 showed that three out of four State road safety improving programs' indicators have not been implemented, and the planned accident indicators will not help improve the situation in the field of road safety.

Keywords: road safety, transport strategy, state programs, accident reduction, expected accident rates, actual accident rates.