Information approach to determination of patterns of choice the route by drivers

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the development of effective methods for forecasting the parameters of urban traffic flows. The analysis of literature sources showed that the project of urban transport systems is based on determining the patterns of formation of traffic flows and their distribution on sections of the road network. The state of flows is determined by the collective movement of drivers of vehicles that meet their travel needs. The psychophysiological and individual qualities of the driver, which are determined by the properties of the central nervous system, have a great influence on the parameters of vehicle movement. Taking into account the regularities of the choice of traffic routes by drivers with different types of nervous system when determining the parameters of traffic flows will allow to obtain the most adequate results of forecasting the parameters of urban transport systems. Carrying out a field examination and processing of its results allowed to obtain all the data necessary to determine the patterns of choice of drivers with the type of nervous system "choleric" routes. As an indicator that describes the choice of drivers of the route, the share of transport correspondence between departure and arrival areas, which is implemented by the relevant alternative routes, was chosen. The study showed that the change in the proportion of correspondence realized by alternative routes, when driving a driver with the type of nervous system "choleric" is described with sufficient accuracy regression equation, in which the variables are the parameters of length and speed. Statistical evaluation of the obtained model indicates the admissibility of its use for forecasting the parameters of traffic flows in urban sustainable development projects. The obtained results allow to determine the distribution of freight and passenger flows by the city network, which allows to solve local problems at the level of service of retail networks. The mechanism of forming the task of transportation taking into account the influence of the human factor allows, in addition to the parameters of vehicles, roads and environment, to take into account the influence of the human factor, which significantly affects the technology of transport process: schedules, speeds.