Algorithm for calculating the probabilities of the transition of the components of the system «men – car – road environment» from the actual state to the specified one

Abstract

The article proposes an algorithm for long-term forecasting of the calculated characteristics of the traffic flow for the development of technical and economic calculations in the design of highways and transport corridors in Ukraine.

At the current stage, given the existing man-made loads on the road and the environment, the future development of the transport system is important. For this, it is necessary to introduce measures to renew the road infrastructure, introduce new technologies, use production waste, and reduce emissions of harmful substances into the environment. In the practice of substantiating the calculated characteristics of highways, the method of evolutionary-probabilistic modeling is used, which allows for taking into account the qualitative changes of the transport system in the period forecasted in tBased ons of empirical data, a dynamic series of changes in the calculated characteristics of the traffic flow is constructed.

 The empirical series of the development of the calculated characteristics of the traffic flow is equalized by the method of moving average or by the method of least squares.

The analysis of the smoothed dynamic series is performed. At the same time, the following are established:

- moments of the beginning and end of periods of the closed state of the  system;

- moments of the beginning and end of the periods of the open state of the  system;

- the term of closed and open state periods;

- coefficients of growth of the calculated characteristics of the traffic flow in the periods of the closed and open state.

The data is compared with the tabular data and the stages to which the empirical dynamic series belongs are established.

The moment of the end of the period in which the last point of the dynamic series is located is set.

Using the data, the terms of the following periods, the moments of their beginning and end, as well as the initial and final calculation characteristics for each period are predicted.